US prescription drug spending forecasted to reach US$610 bn by 2021

May 5, 2017

US spending on prescription drugs is expected to rise by 4-7% through 2021, reaching US$580 to US$610 billion, according to a report released by Quintiles IMS Holding, lowering its previous forecast.

Drug makers are facing increasing pricing pressure and competition in the market. In addition, 2016 saw fewer new medicines being approved than prior years. These prompted Quintiles IMS, which compiles data for the pharmaceutical industry, to lower its forecast average spending growth from 6-9%to 4-7% through 2021.

Taking likely manufacturer discounts and rebates into account, spending would grow 2-5% to US$375 billion to US$405 billion in 2021, as net price increases for patent-protected branded drugs slows, the report said.

Under pressure from politicians and insurers over the cost of many branded medicines, several drug makers have pledged to limit annual price hikes to under 10%.

“We’re forecasting moderation in pricing reflecting what … we expect will be a continuing trend of single-digit price increases,” said Murray Aitken, executive director of the QuintilesIMS Institute which compiled the report.

As several big-selling prescription drugs lose patent exclusivity and more biosimilars – less expensive versions of expensive biotech medicines – enter the market, the expanded use of cheap generics will also offset some of the expense of new medicines.

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved just 22 new medicines last year, down from 45 in 2015, which will also contribute to lower spending growth this year and next, the report said.That is seen picking up in 2019 and beyond as Quintiles IMS estimates 40 to 45 new brand launches per year through 2021 based on a review of experimental medicines in drug maker pipelines.

The report found more than 2,300 novel products in later stage development, including more than 600 drugs for cancer, which remain able to command very high prices.”Numbers (of approvals) are already running well ahead of where they were a year ago,” Aitken said.

US spending on prescription medicines in 2016 increased by 5.8% over 2015 levels to US$450 billion based on list prices, and by US4.8% to US$323 billion when adjusted for discounts and rebates.

The biggest drivers of prescription growth came from large chronic therapy areas, such as hypertension and mental health.

Overall use of pain medicines declined 1% with restrictions on prescribing and dispensing becoming more common as healthcare providers attempt to address the growing epidemic of addiction to opioid pain drugs.

Tags:

Category: Features, Pharmaceuticals

Comments are closed.

Subscribe to HCA for exclusive updates

Top Viewed News

12 simple steps to a healthy lifestyle

12 simple steps to a healthy lifestyle

Now that the world has returned to normalcy following the pandemic, everyone is back to their daily routines and encounters with stress... Read More

AZBIL: Envisioning the Future of Hospitals

AZBIL: Envisioning the Future of Hospitals

As we strive to be the hospital of choice, why not refine our commitment to excellence beyond the pivotal mission of saving lives?... Read More

Study Unlocks Key Findings on Asian Carriers of Breast Cancer

Study Unlocks Key Findings on Asian Carriers of Breast Cancer

Malaysian researchers at Cancer Research Malaysia (CRMY) and the University of Nottingham Malaysia (UNM) have published... Read More

 Unmasking the Risks of Mercury-Laden Cosmetics

Unmasking the Risks of Mercury-Laden Cosmetics

As the saying goes, beauty is in the eye of the beholder and thus subjective; but in some countries, the ideal of beauty begins... Read More

5 key hospital etiquettes to be mindful of when visiting a sick patient

5 key hospital etiquettes to be mindful of when visiting a sick patient

In moments of illness, the presence of loved ones can comfort and support. However, it’s important for visitors... Read More

Free counters!

2025 – 2026 Exhibitions



2025 Events


9-11 July
Medical Device Development (MEDIX) – Osaka
Makuhari Messe, Japan
www.manufacturing-world.jp


14-16 July
Lab Asia
Kuala Lumpur Convention Centre (KLCC), Malaysia
www.lab-asia.com


16-18 July
Medlab Asia | Asia Health
Malaysia International Trade & Exhibition Centre, Kuala Lumpur
www.medlabasia.com


24 July
Medlab Asia | Asia Health
Singapore
www.conversationaltechsummitasia.com


13-15 August
Philippines Medical
SMX Convention Center Manila Philippines
www.philmedical.com


21-23 August
REHACARE China
Suzhou, China
www.rehacare-c.com


21-23 August
Medical Fair China
Suzhou, China
www.medicalfair.cn


3-5 September
Thailand Lab International
BITEC, Bangkok, Thailand
www.thailandlab.com


3-5 September
Bio Ap International
BITEC, Bangkok
www.bioapinter.com


9-12 September
China Dental Show
National Exhibition and Convention Center (Shanghai)
www.chinadentalshow.com


10-11 September
Hospital Management Asia
Shangri-La Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
www.hospitalmanagementasia.com


10-12 September
Medical Fair Thailand
BITEC, Bangkok
www.medicalfair-thailand.com


10-12 September
GITEX Digi Health & Biotech Thailand
BITEC, Bangkok
www.www.gitexdigihealth.com


11-13 September
Bio Asia Pacific
BITEC, Bangkok
www.bioasiapacific.com


16-18 September
OSH India
Hall-6, Bombay Exhibition Centre, Goregaon (E)
www.oshindia.com


24-26 September
Medtec China
Shanghai, China
www.en.medtecchina.com


7-9 October
Malaysia Pharma and Healthcare Expo
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
www.mphcexpo.com


9-11 October
Medical Japan Tokyo
Makuhari Messe, Japan
www.medical-jpn.jp


17-19 October
Health Asia
BITEC, Bangkok
www.health-asia.com


17-19 October
Health Asia
BITEC, Bangkok
www.health-asia.com


29-30 October
United Medical Expo
Astana, Kazakhstan
www.umtexpo.com


7-8 November
Eldercare Exhibition and Conference Asia (ELDEX Asia)
Suntex Singapore Exhibition and Convention Centre
www.eldexasia.com


10-12 November
Saudi International Pharma Expo
Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center
www.saudipharmaexpo.com


10-12 November
Saudi International MedLab Expo
Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center
www.saudimedlabexpo.com


27-29 November
International Wellness Expo (IWE 2025)
METIC, Malaysia
www.internationalwellnessexpo.com


27-29 November
Vietnam Medi-Pharm
Friendship Cultural Palace , Hanoi
www.vietnammedipharm.vn


2026 Events


9-12 Febuary
Arab Health
Dubai World Trade Centre
www.arabhealthonline.com


15-17 April
Lab Indonesia
Jakarta Convention Center, Jakarta, Indonesia
www.lab-indo.com


28-30 April
SEACare
MITEC, KL
wwww.ea-healthcare.com


6-7 May
HealthTechX Asia
Sands Expo & Convention Centre, Singapore
www.healthtechx-asia.com


4-6 June
International Health Industry Expo
China
www.ihe-china.com


16-18 June
CPhI China
SNIEC, Shanghai, China
www.cphi.com


25-27 June
Medical Taiwan
Taipei Nangang Exhibition Center, Taipei, Taiwan
www.medicaltaiwan.com.tw


9-11 September
Medical Fair Asia
Marina Bay Sands, Singapore
www.medicalfair-asia.com


9-11 September
Medical Manufacturing Asia
Marina Bay Sands, Singapore
www.medmanufacturing-asia.com


1-2 October
GITEX Vietnam
Hanoi
www.gitexasia.com