From Epic Fury to Epic Risks: global healthcare in peril
Logistics navigating risky waters
Iran’s retaliatory airstrikes on US military bases in several Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, along with restrictions on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, have disrupted global trade. Major carriers have ceased using this key route, which handles about 20% of global oil trade. Rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope has added days to delivery times. Air freight costs have surged and capacity has tightened, affecting the delivery of important cargo, including some medical devices.
In the current situation, global research firm Fitch Solutions outlines three scenarios for the medical sector amid the ongoing Gulf conflict: A short-lived escalation would increase supply chain and logistics pressure for medical devices in GCC markets, with limited global impact. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would hike energy prices, raising manufacturing and distribution costs, particularly in Asia and Europe due to their reliance on imported energy.
Under a prolonged, large-scale conflict, disruptions would expand from regional to global, delaying capital equipment procurement and pressuring manufacturers’ margins. Extended disruption in the strait would make logistics challenges more structural, with persistent rerouting, reduced carrier presence in high-risk routes and tighter air cargo capacity affecting the global market. Import-reliant regions across Asia, the Middle East and Africa would face longer lead times, higher costs and more frequent shortages of critical components and finished devices.
Sustained high oil and LNG prices would further increase production and distribution costs, especially in Europe and Asia, while squeezing public funds and limiting healthcare budgets. Hospitals, particularly in emerging markets, may defer non-essential capital spending such as imaging upgrades while prioritizing essential supplies and maintenance. For manufacturers, rising input costs and ongoing upheavals would compress margins and push efforts to diversify supply chains, including more regional production and multisourcing to reduce reliance on key routes.
Escalating conflict disrupts humanitarian supply routes
Major aid groups continue to support war-affected populations, but ongoing conflict and blocked routes are delaying deliveries. Humanitarian organization Direct Relief said escalating hostilities are straining health systems and limiting transport of supplies. Over the past year, it has delivered more than US$100 million in medical aid and grants to healthcare partners across the Middle East and neighboring countries.
As fighting continues and populations move, hospitals report rising patient demand. At the same time, fuel shortages, damaged infrastructure, and constrained supply chains are limiting care. Armed conflict places dual pressure on healthcare systems, increasing demand while reducing capacity due to damaged facilities and interrupted supply routes.
In the current Gulf conflict, facilities report fuel shortages affecting generators and essential equipment, limited medicines and supplies, and higher demand for trauma and surgical care. Services such as dialysis, oncology, maternal health, and immunization are also being affected. Mass displacement compounds the crisis as patient volumes rise.
Airspace restrictions and flight cancellations are delaying cargo routes used for humanitarian shipments, while key pharmaceutical transit hubs face operational issues. Maritime tensions are also affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Direct Relief.
Unstable transport routes often force aid groups to reroute shipments to keep medicines safe, traceable, and compliant with regulations. Continued instability could extend supply constraints beyond the conflict zone and affect neighboring humanitarian programs.
Direct Relief works with licensed providers and local partners across the region while maintaining medical stockpiles in Europe and the Middle East, allowing it to respond quickly when supply routes reopen.
Tensions fuel a surge of health threats
The World Health Organization (WHO) said the ongoing Middle East conflict is burdening health systems as injuries and displacement rise, attacks on healthcare continue, and public health risks grow.
Within ten days of the hostilities, casualties have risen sharply. Iran has reported thousands of deaths and injuries, while Lebanon has recorded hundreds of deaths and thousands of injuries. Israel has also reported multiple fatalities and injuries, with numbers expected to increase as the fighting continues.
The conflict is also affecting life-saving services. Since February 28, WHO has verified 18 attacks on healthcare in Iran, resulting in eight deaths among health workers. In Lebanon, 25 attacks have caused 16 deaths and 29 injuries. These incidents are reducing access to care when it is most needed.
Public health risks are increasing as displacement grows. More than 100,000 people in Iran have relocated, while up to 700,000 in Lebanon are internally displaced, many in crowded shelters with limited access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene. This raises the risk of respiratory and diarrheal diseases, especially among women and children.
Environmental risks are also rising. In Iran, petroleum fires and damaged infrastructure have exposed communities to toxic pollutants that can affect air, water, and food safety.
Access to healthcare is becoming more limited. In Lebanon, 49 primary healthcare centers and five hospitals have closed following evacuation orders, reducing essential services. In the occupied Palestinian territory, movement restrictions are delaying ambulances and mobile clinics in the West Bank. In Gaza, medical evacuations remain suspended since February 28, while hospitals are buckling under pressure due to shortages of medicines, supplies, and fuel, which is being rationed for critical services.
Airspace restrictions have slowed the movement of medical supplies from WHO’s logistics hub in Dubai. More than 50 emergency supply requests, intended to support over 1.5 million people across 25 countries, are delayed, creating backlogs. Priority shipments include supplies for Gaza via Al Arish, Egypt, as well as Lebanon and Afghanistan.
The escalation comes as humanitarian needs in the Eastern Mediterranean were already high. About 115 million people require assistance, nearly half of the global total, while health emergency appeals remain 70% underfunded, according to WHO. It added that without stronger healthcare safeguards and funding, vulnerable populations and fragile health systems will continue to struggle.
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